Egypt As Lodestar
Sep 27, 2012
The shifting sand in the Middle East predicates that new regional leadership is desperately needed. The old order is crumbling; most painfully so in Syria. But without a doubt, the old order is giving way to the new order. The emerging new order is a tenuous process and one that requires a steady hand from western powers. But the prospect of a strong Egypt brings many dividends. Of all the states in the Middle East, Egypt has the most potential to lead its neighboring states out of decades of political and economic disparity. A nation-state of more than 80 million people with a 60% youth bulge, Egypt has a rich resource in the generation that protested in Tahrir Square. These young people want jobs and have widened their world views in the vastness of You Tube and through cross-cultural exchanges on social media. The internet has served as change-agent tool. The youth in Egypt are a generation that has already rejected many of the trappings that accompanied the Muhbarak regime. At present they are waiting to see how the Morsi government attends to the need for employment and infrastructure improvements. This is a country on the precipice of economic development-or not. A precipice of enormous consequence, Morsi must summon the courage to rappel the radical wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and swing toward the progressives in the country without inciting public protests from those who would press for a theological government. Given these conditions, observers should not be surprised to see Mr. Morsi appease his base from time to time so as to avert a crisis. But should he succumb to the radicals in his base Egypt's future could falter for another decade. What would ensue is a battle between the youth and the religious conservatives imperiling the country at a time when the imperative is clearly the need for bread-and-butter solutions. Economic success depends on the ongoing reform within the governing systems, the political process, and most pointedly in the business sectors. Each of these layers of Egyptian society were established during the Muhbarak era through convoluted arrangements necessary under a totalitarian system. Decades of brawling for power and influence led to rampant corruption as a normative condition. "Payola" in Egypt has long been an expectation, not an atrocity and is wholly unsuitable for any movement toward a more democratic system structured to provide economic opportunity for the masses. Egypt will not find the way easy. The United States remains a pivotal supporter of this fragile government. Too heavy a hand from the U.S. could result in a backlash and strengthen the extremists. Too loose a hand may result in intransigence from leaders of the old order who will resist even a whiff of insignificance. The old order has stored up years of pent up frustration and is now wanting to cash it in for political significance. Yet, employment and opportunity for the youth in Egypt will provide a valuable counterweight to the radicalism that prevails within those of the old order. With its prestigious standing as a civilization, how Egyptians define their nation-state in the 21st century will have influence for generations to come. The challenge is to establish pyramids of democratically styled institutions for the youth to build upon. Success for this generation will light the way for the region. Whereas the self-immolation of one young man in Tunisia provoked the revolutionary passions of youth across borders, a successful Egypt will serve as a transnational lodestar to illuminate the future. Or not, but then many didn't believe that revolutions could sweep the Middle East either. We will all watch and hope.
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