Stunning But Not Surprising
Jul 03, 2013
The headlines today from Egypt are stunning but not surprising. The removal of President Morsi from the office of the presidency by the military was signaled as soon as the 48 hour deadline was given. The military had tipped their hand by giving Morsi the opportunity to resign before they removed him by force. As the first democratically elected president, his removal has left the world asking, "Is this the end of democracy in Egypt?" And the answer is "No", these events do not clearly indicate the end of democracy in the Middle East. However they are an indication of how difficult the journey from corrupt oppressive systems to representative government can be. The movement in the Arab world to transition from autocratic family regimes will require tremendous effort from the Egyptians and the world is witnessing the voice of the "street" in the numbers of protesters that poured out to call for Morsi to step down. The role of the military in these events is not ideal for democracy. But it is important for pundits, academicians, and so-called experts to climb down off their intellectual perches and listen to the realities of how the Egyptians are carving their future. It is a process fraught with mistakes and missteps. Morsi is a failed president who had no experience in traversing the political landmines that awaited him as the first democratically elected president. But his inexperience revealed incompetence and weakness in the face of pressures from the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi was elected to represent the nation state of Egypt. His movement toward the Muslim Brotherhood and his knack for alienating other constituencies in Egypt led to his failure. Morsi failed to negotiate important agreements with the military, the parliament, and the business leaders who had a vested interest in the success of Egypt's future. Egyptians, and all those in the Middle East are creating democratic governments in a day-to-day laboratory. It is not going to look like the western emergence of democracy, but that does not necessitate the end of democracy. Democracy is first and foremost "demos" "kratos" or people power. Democracy asks for government to serve the people. Egypt's enormous populace makes direct democracy an impossible governing system. Thus representative democracy necessitates that elected officials govern. The large and politically active percentage of the Egyptian people did not assess Morsi as capable of representing them. The political activism and public protest witnessed in Egyptians cities without threat of torture, imprisonment or worse was democracy in action. While his removal is an affront to the constitutional basis of an elected president, the people in the street are exercising their demand that the Egyptian president evidence the leadership that will bring their country to a better day. Morsi did not evidence any thing in his speech a day before the year anniversary to give the Egyptian people a new sense of confidence and thus he signed his own removal by default. The temptation is to over-interpret the crisis in Egypt on July 3, 2013 too early. The military did not establish a general as the interim president; instead Mansour the Chief Justice of the Constitution Court was announced as the interim president. This is a good sign. But the pressure is on. The pressure is on for Egypt to find its footing on this democratic path after the removal of Morsi. It is up to the people to hold the military accountable to ensure that new elections are held soon. It is essential that the amendments to the Egyptian Constitution are undertaken immediately. Democracy can withstand these dramatic events. Hopefully this is a course correction for Egypt. But the reality is that democracy is really hard. Representing people of a nation state requires far more than a sense of religious authority or sectarian ideology. The Muslim Brotherhood are surely smarting after today's events, but it is time that the Brotherhood face life after Mubarak as Egyptians not as theocratic idealists. Running the affairs of a state requires much more than oppositional ideas, it requires a bigger vision and a better road map. The events of today are not a failure of democracy but are instead a failure of the Muslim Brotherhood. They won a year ago with a "bread and butter" agenda, however they lost sight of the voters and became more concerned with shepherding their own agenda. It equaled FAILURE. It is now time to address the economic plight of Egypt before it descends any further. It is time to stabilize the government with a representative capable of gaining the confidence of the people. It is time to make Egypt safe enough for tourists to return to support the myriad jobs that depend on the tourist industry. Rocky days ahead, but the pressure may yet usher a new democratic day. The next steps taken in coming weeks and months will set the foundation for Egypt in the post Arab Spring world. Deeper reform and a more consolidated vision for the future of Egypt are necessary in order to preserve any sense of stability as this story unfolds. Egypt will need the support of its democratic partners at this critical moment. Democracy is not inherently incompatible with Egypt, the Arab States or even Islam. But the struggle between the Islamists' and the reformers will be at the heart of the battle for the future of Egypt. The pressure is on. (See my comment below written later on July 3, 2013)
Previous comments made:
Stay connected with news and updates!
Join our mailing list to receive the latest news and updates from our team.
Don't worry, your information will not be shared.
We hate SPAM. We will never sell your information, for any reason.
The growing reports of retaliation against pro Muslim Brotherhood members is a disturbing development. Settling scores will only prolong the precarious conditions in Egypt. The military must restrain any and all forces who overreach during these days. If the military overreaches or permits other security forces to overreach, it will threaten the emergence of another nascent democratic outcome. If tensions devolve in to more widespread violence or the security apparatus is unleashed in Mubarak fashion, Egypt will become mired in internal conflict setting the stage for military rule. Pragmatic leaders must step forth and prevail to call for restraint. (Just heard that Egyptian TV stations have been taken off the air. This is a throwback to a security state. Not a good sign. These are critical hours for Egypt to rescue itself from the pull of the past)
Felice Pope July 3, 2013 at 7:14 pm
Thanks for your timely, written commentary, and the continuation of our class on U.S. Foreign Policy and Challenges in the Middle East. Many Qs/comments come to mind that I suspect you will address in another writing on your Web site:
Are there any competent leader(s) to lead Egypt to any form of democracy? The internal strife, unfortunate for the people of Egypt, will deter involvement with Israel, which may not be good for negotiations w/Hamas in the Gaza strip. How will,, if any, the examples of Iraq’s struggling democracy (?), Jordan’s model of government (compassionate monarchy with promise of change), Iran’s theocracy, and/or the strong-arm tactics of Syria’s Assad effect or affect the people of Egypt?
Probably, a wait-and-see stance as to U.S. foreign policy? Optimistic, the people of Egypt will have access to social media, despite unavailability of TV stations. .
Shall look forward to your continued updates.
Felice, The instability of Egypt always impacts the stability and security of Israel. Bush, from a theoretical standpoint was correct, democracy in the Middle East is the answer. Unfortunately his execution of bringing democracy to the Middle East and the greater region was flawed. Egypt’s turmoil destabilizes the entire region and provides opportunities for those who seek to exploit and polarize already dangerous factions. A stable Egypt is in the interest of the U.S. and the entire region. As for your question about competent leaders in Egypt, there are many in the business sector, but as businessmen, they do not like the uncertainty that is currently threatening Egypt. El Baradei is presenting a public face to the revolution at this juncture and I think that cooler heads need to get behind him for the time-being. I do not believe he would be a good president, but certainly he can become the face of democratic reform while the interim government is in place. Lastly, the interim president must make a speech and soon! He must provide a face and voice of stability, calm, and rule of law. This nascent democratic process in Egypt is right now in the ICU. It is not the time to remain behind the scenes. Now, right now, is the time to provide leadership.
My worry for Egypt is that the revolutions have gotten to peoples minds. Every time they dislike something they’re going to keep protesting until they get their way; despite whatever it may be having happened democratically (he won the election! Anti-Morsi’s of course say it was rigged…is that how elections are always going to be in Egypt? Your candidate doesn’t win so you say it was rigged?). The violence towards the pro MB is absolutely ridiculous in a state that is working towards democracy, not to mention the channels that supported Morsi being stopped. Only one side is being heard in the media, exactly how it was during the Mubarak regime.
Hanna, The role of the interim president is critical at this juncture. He cannot remain passive, but must step forth and in a public manner. It is time for a huge speech on TV and it is time for the people to be focused on matters other than settling scores and/or proving who is right or wrong. Until the people are out of the streets fighting, one faction against the other, there is little political agency to move the nation state forward.
Oftentimes it seems that nation-states in transition to democracy are subject to a lack of special resources. There will be problems due lack of experience with sharing power and mediating conflict; a lack of qualified/trained personnel to fill necessary roles; a lack of established routine… even for normal things like communications, operations, even protocol. We take a lot for granted in the US, for example: long-established expectations and examples for leadership, well-bounded systems of executive powers (we have the judiciary, legislation, and exec), and importantly a separation of military and police forces. I’m not an expert on Egypt, but imagine it would be frustrating to work on even the simplest of issues in such a chaotic environment.
What if there were no secretary in my department… and nobody knew how to print labels? This sounds trivial, but it would be a real drag next time we had a conference. Something so simple…
While the M.B. has turned out to be a suboptimal source for leadership, I am not aware of many alternatives. Best hopes for the people of Egypt as they muck things out
Callie, Your analysis hits on a few good points. The absence of leaders in roles of power to assist the nation at this time is why we are seeing the increased violence in the street. The people are reverting to old mechanisms because it is a known equation and it is familiar. The strength of procedural law states is to provide a common law code for all to follow. Such a code has not been deeply entrenched within Egyptian society. “Street law” is being applied and it is the responsibility of the military to quell the violence, not become part of it through passive observation. Egypt and Egyptians need a reason to look ahead, to be forward thinking and it is for those who hold power to provide a sense of way forward. In the absence of that, things will continue to devolve.
When the coup was happening on Wednesday I thought what would Beth think of this. Now I know what you would say thanks to you and all of the classes. I have learned so much!
Thanks, Beth, for a very reasonable and helpful analysis of events. I think they merit optimistic support! I happen to have left Sinai the day before the demonstrations and am now in Jerusalem, watching and listening with bated breath!
Larry, I sure am glad to know you have left Sinai. Things are much too contentious to be there. I would imagine that Jerusalem is watching carefully. Events today are unfortunately revealing how weak the political center is as the competition for power ensues. I’ll be posting more analysis this week. Check back again on Wednesday. (One of these next trips, I want to go with you. I enjoyed the last trip to Egypt and Jordan.) Take care!
Thought you might find this interesting. http://www.upworthy.com/a-12-year-old-egyptian-boy-flabbergasts-an-interviewer-they-werent-expecting-a-political-genius-4?c=slt1
Toni,
This young man has a more developed critical thinking mind that many of the adults running his country. What a brave and strong boy he is. And thank you for sharing this! (Sorry it took so long to post your comment, I was away on vacation.
Excellent piece, Beth. Thank you for bringing a sober perspective on these events.
Rabbi Suzanne,
The events continue to reveal the authentic struggle for democracy. The violence is hard to witness, but this process must be undertaken in Egypt in order for the autocratic systems to be defeated. It will be a struggle, but it is impressive to see those who are fighting for something better persist. I would recommend that you look at the video Toni Sandell posted above. It represents a hopeful future but these voices must be nurtured and protected.